Calculating F&M Milk Loss                   SBConsultancy Wednesday 26th Sept
Last case in Cornwall 6-Apr 174 days elapsed
ACTUAL Dairy Cow slaughterings are not known but the potential productive Dairy Cow cull from a total over 6 million animals culled is 5% of UK herd
Estimate of Dairy Cows little changed at 130,000 before a potential welfare cull of 34,000,  - most of the welfare cull will be OTMS type animals
Average cases in the week ending Sunday 23rd was 1 per day - similar to the previous week as the hot spots continue to rumble,
Vets have a long job of testing animals for residual F&M antibodies otherwise prolonging an end beyond the that which weekly slaughter estimates below suggest
Quota price fell following Aug Statistics Cleans 15.25 ppl Lease 0.75ppl.  Margaret Beckett Doesn't want Quota - So whats new?
The only critical statistics now are monthly production figures from Intervention board which showed for Aug  meeting quota profile - if there were a profile.
Other Industry estimates not so far from my calculations already putting a final tally around 120,-130000 before welfare cull
Can production rise 500L to 6500L (Incl calf etc milk)  from an adjusted Census 2001 2.2 Million UK herd?  Easily - in theory - but never in practice - who knows?
As of Wednesday 26th Sept       When is an OTMS not an OTMS
Eventual Cull? A 4,000,000       When it is a Welfare cull
For or Slaughtered B 3,896,000        
Slaughtered C 3,891,000        
C B A   June Census % June   Welfare Cull Total Cull % June
Slaughtered Current Final   2000 Census     Census
Cattle 599,000 15% 599,770 615,780   11,133,000 19% 5.5%   161,172 776,952 7.0%
Dairy Cows? 21% 125,686 3.2% 125,848 129,207   2,336,000 3.9% 5.5%   33,818 163,025 7.0%
Sheep 3,134,000 81% 3,138,027 3,221,794   42,261,000 71% 7.6%   1,306,723 4,528,517 10.7%
Pigs 141,000 4% 141,181 144,950   6,482,000 11% 2.2%   270,240 415,190 6.4%
Goats 2,000 0% 2,003 2,056        
3,876,000 3,880,981 3,984,580   59,876,000   1,771,953 5,883,684
                               
OTMS Cull   22%   Slaughter Statistics     Not Served / Other
Dairy Animals Per Year 513,920     Daily Weekly +/-% By AI or Natural Service
Per Week 9,883   10-Jun 9000 63000 A perhaps 10-20% animals
Epidemic Weeks   17-Jun 9000 63000 A 0% will not be served over a
Start 20/02/01   24-Jun 7000 49000 A -22% period of 20 or so weeks
End 15/08/01   01-Jul 6000 42000 A -14% cutting production by 0.5-1.5%
Weeks 25 Rendering Capacity not known   08-Jul 7000 49000 A 17% overall.
Backlog OTMS   248,489 But see Welfare Cull       15-Jul 6000 42000 A -14% Leavers from the Industry are
Of Which in Milk 25% 62,122   22-Jul 4000 28000 A -33% still in place and their animals
At Yield L 10 109 Million L   29-Jul 5000 35000 A 25% will be bought (66-77%) to
Quota : L Million 14,010   12-Aug 7000 49000 A 40% restock  + imports
Daily: Million L 38   19-Aug 6000 42000 A -14% Significant restocking to take
Assume large % of  Cows on the Welfare cull would have been those on OTMS   26-Aug 4000 28000 A -33% place Autumn.  1st cut silage
The Litreage loss below is if no herds return to Milk in the Quota year   02-Sep 4000 28000 A 0% should be good & plentiful -a
Max L loss from 129207 Cows 775 20 days   09-Sep 7000 49000 A 75% good start. 
Deduct OTMS Milk L 109 3 days   16-Sep 2000 14000 A -71% There are few surplus UK
F&M Loss Of Milk   666 17 days   4.9%   23-Sep 2000 14000 P 0% heifers, & a deficit next year