Calculating F&M Milk Loss											SBConsultancy Wednesday 26th Sept
Last case in Cornwall	6-Apr	174	days elapsed
ACTUAL Dairy Cow slaughterings are not known but the potential productive Dairy Cow cull from a total over 6 million animals culled is 5% of UK herd
Estimate of Dairy Cows little changed at 130,000 before a potential welfare cull of 34,000,  - most of the welfare cull will be OTMS type animals
Average cases in the week ending Sunday 23rd was 1 per day - similar to the previous week as the hot spots continue to rumble,
Vets have a long job of testing animals for residual F&M antibodies otherwise prolonging an end beyond the that which weekly slaughter estimates below suggest
Quota price fell following Aug Statistics Cleans 15.25 ppl Lease 0.75ppl.  Margaret Beckett Doesn't want Quota - So whats new?
The only critical statistics now are monthly production figures from Intervention board which showed for Aug  meeting quota profile - if there were a profile.
Other Industry estimates not so far from my calculations already putting a final tally around 120,-130000 before welfare cull
Can production rise 500L to 6500L (Incl calf etc milk)  from an adjusted Census 2001 2.2 Million UK herd?  Easily - in theory - but never in practice - who knows?
As of Wednesday 26th Sept												When is an OTMS not an OTMS
Eventual Cull?	A	4,000,000										When it is a Welfare cull
For or Slaughtered	B	3,896,000
Slaughtered	C	3,891,000
		C		B		A		June Census		% June		Welfare Cull		Total Cull	% June
		Slaughtered		Current		Final		2000		Census					Census
Cattle		599,000	15%	599,770		615,780		11,133,000	19%	5.5%		161,172		776,952	7.0%
Dairy Cows?	21%	125,686	3.2%	125,848		129,207		2,336,000	3.9%	5.5%		33,818		163,025	7.0%
Sheep		3,134,000	81%	3,138,027		3,221,794		42,261,000	71%	7.6%		1,306,723		4,528,517	10.7%
Pigs		141,000	4%	141,181		144,950		6,482,000	11%	2.2%		270,240		415,190	6.4%
Goats		2,000	0%	2,003		2,056
		3,876,000		3,880,981		3,984,580		59,876,000				1,771,953		5,883,684
OTMS Cull		22%						Slaughter Statistics					Not Served / Other
Dairy Animals Per Year		513,920							Daily	Weekly		+/-%	By AI or Natural Service
Per Week		9,883						10-Jun	9000	63000	A		perhaps 10-20% animals
Epidemic Weeks								17-Jun	9000	63000	A	0%	will not be served over a
Start		20/02/01						24-Jun	7000	49000	A	-22%	period of 20 or so weeks
End		15/08/01						01-Jul	6000	42000	A	-14%	cutting production by 0.5-1.5%
Weeks		25	Rendering Capacity not known					08-Jul	7000	49000	A	17%	overall.
Backlog OTMS		248,489	But see Welfare Cull					15-Jul	6000	42000	A	-14%	Leavers from the Industry are
Of Which in Milk		25%	62,122					22-Jul	4000	28000	A	-33%	still in place and their animals
At Yield L		10	109	Million L				29-Jul	5000	35000	A	25%	will be bought (66-77%) to
Quota : L Million		14,010						12-Aug	7000	49000	A	40%	restock  + imports
Daily: Million L		38						19-Aug	6000	42000	A	-14%	Significant restocking to take
Assume large % of  Cows on the Welfare cull would have been those on OTMS								26-Aug	4000	28000	A	-33%	place Autumn.  1st cut silage
The Litreage loss below is if no herds return to Milk in the Quota year								02-Sep	4000	28000	A	0%	should be good & plentiful -a
Max L loss from 129207 Cows		775	20	days				09-Sep	7000	49000	A	75%	good start.
Deduct OTMS Milk L		109	3	days				16-Sep	2000	14000	A	-71%	There are few surplus UK
F&M Loss Of Milk		666	17	days		4.9%		23-Sep	2000	14000	P	0%	heifers, & a deficit next year