1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1   January Monthly Quota Statistics 99-1999 Monthly Quota Statistics 01-2002       Next Update March              
1                                                
1   Take Home Messages   Actual Profile                              
1   Actual 01-02 V Profile 11,570 11,750 -180       million L under quota            
1   Cumulative production is running -1.29% On 12 months       -4.7 Days production              
1   Monthly production is running 0.1 % over profile in January 3.1% over January  01      
1   Monthly Fat was for   January 4.08 % provisionally & over last year at 4.06 vs. 4.01 profile      
1  
Januarys provisional Fat Adjusted production - despite lower cow numbers, from both F&M and a decline anyway in herd size only exceeded last year by 35 mL & marginally overshot profile by 0.1%  - if the board had one. The  Intervention Board or Rural Payments Agency as is now does not now produce a profile against which fat adjusted production is measured.  I have taken their 00/01 profile and amended - as they would have - to give some continuity of presentation.  This profile mildly overshoots supply for the 1st part and undershoots the 2nd half of the year.
Markets always over react and fail to react in time.  I suspect the market will now go nearer to 0.5ppl lease - the market maintained for those that want their cheques.  By markets I mean people - YOU & ME.  TAKE HOME MESSAGE 17-18 ppl good value at 4.00% base rate. There are now 2 months to go can quota be exceeded - NOT NOW IT CANT
 
                                           
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1   IB figures are subject to confirmation and should be taken as a guide only                
1   They apply only to wholesale and not direct sales production                    
1   Manufacturers can be tardy with their submissions & the IB is not infallible                
1   Check the Intervention Board Website                                
1                                                
1                                                
1       Profiles & Fat Adjusted Production         Fats       Historic Quota Prices    
1       00-01 00-01 00-01 Dif 01-02 01-02 Dif   Cumulative Fat %   Profile Fat Actual   Leasing Clean      
1   Month IB Profile 99-00 Profile   Actual 01-02 Actual Profile A-P Change on previous year 99-00 00-01 01-02 01-02 01-02 00-01 01 2002 01 2002      
1   April ######### 1,234 ######### 1,188 -0.9% 1,177 1,236 -4.8% 28,700,000 4.00 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.05 4.06 4.3 0.8 21.0 12.0      
1   May ######### 1,339 ######### 1,297 -0.1% 1,295 1,341 -3.4% 6,600,000 3.94 3.95 3.89 3.89 3.85 3.91 4.2 1.2 20.0 13.5      
1   June ######### 1,229 ######### 1,173 3.3% 1,211 1,231 -1.6% 14,600,000 3.92 3.93 3.88 3.88 3.84 3.90 3.8 1.0 17.8 13.0      
1   July ######### 1,183 ######### 1,177 1.1% 1,190 1,185 0.4% 13,300,000 3.91 3.91 3.85 3.85 3.86 3.86 3.8 1.3 16.5 16.5      
1   August ######### 1,138 ######### 1,141 0.0% 1,142 1,140 0.2% 700,000 3.90 3.90 3.88 3.88 3.90 3.92 3.7 1.0 17.0 15.7      
1   September ######### 1,098 ######### 1,071 -0.2% 1,069 1,100 -2.8% -600,000 3.91 3.91 3.97 3.97 4.01 4.04 4.1 0.8 23.0 15.3      
1   October ######### 1,112 ######### 1,056 2.3% 1,080 1,113 -3.0% -19,400,000 3.93 3.94 4.08 4.08 4.11 4.15 2.0 0.6 18.0 18.5      
1   November ######### 1,066 ######### 1,020 4.6% 1,068 1,068 0.0% -22,100,000 3.95 3.95 4.08 4.08 4.12 4.16 1.0 0.8 18.0 18.0      
1   December ######### 1,147 ######### 1,109 3.7% 1,150 1,149 0.1% -4,100,000 3.96 3.96 4.05 4.05 4.11 4.08 0.5 1.5 18.5 25.0      
1   January ######### 1,185 ######### 1,153 3.1% 1,188 1,187 0.1% 900,000 3.97 3.97 4.01 4.01 4.08 4.06 0.1 0.9 19.0 19.0      
1   February ######### 1,071 ######### 1,068     1,072   1,700,000 3.97 3.97 3.99 3.99   4.02 0.1   17.5        
1   March ######### 1,186 ######### 1,208     1,188   900,000 3.97 3.97 3.98 3.98   4.06 0.3   16.5        
1   Total ######### 13,989 ######### 13,661   11,570 14,010         3.97 3.97     2.3 1.0 18.6 16.6      
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1                                                
1   Notes                                            
1                                                
1   Wholesale 00-2001quota raised by permanent transfers from direct sellers to wholesalers & EU award        
1   Direct sellers think of a number and juggle it at the end of the year, so final position not known until July      
1   There is a transfer between owned and temporary quota at the end of the year which can significantly alter      
1   overall quota - Historically this has usually been in favour of wholesale quota thresholds            
1                                                
1   During the quota year eligible producers are able to permanently convert wholesale quota into direct        
    sales quota and vice versa.                                  
1   After the end of a quota year eligible producers are able to temporarily convert wholesale quota into direct       
    sales quota and vice versa.                                    
1   Large amounts of quota can be involved in these conversions. For example, in the 1998/99 quota year,      
    58m litres of direct sales quota was temporarily converted into wholesale quota, while 76m litres was        
    temporarily converted from wholesale quota into direct sales quota.                  
1   It is thus almost inevitable that the end-of-year quota amount will differ from the start-of-year quota amount.      
1   The July levy calculation therefore involves a comparison of updated production figures, butterfat-adjusted    
1   at the individual producer level, against the UK's end-of-year quota amount                
1                                                
1                                                
1